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Science Dean to speak on early Haiti earthquake prediction

Written by Justin Sharp, The Shorthorn staff

Thursday, 28 January 2010 09:39 PM

Google Maps has been updated to show the earthquake destruction in Haiti. (Courtesy Photo: Google Maps)

On April 10, 2008, nearly two years prior to the earthquake in Haiti, Science Dean Pamela Jansma contributed to a paper stating the likelihood of such a quake.

“We said that it was likely, but we didn’t predict Jan. 11, 2010,” Jansma said, adding that it wasn’t a prediction but rather an interpretation of the data collected.

According to a summary of the paper written with colleagues from Purdue University, The University of Arkansas, the Bureau of Mines and Energy and the Institut de Physique du Globe in Paris, a magnitude 7.2 earthquake was possible in the northeastern Caribbean, according to the team’s research findings in 2008.

Jansma learned of the quake minutes after it occurred.

“I was sitting at my desk looking at Yahoo, and it said an earthquake had occurred a few minutes ago in Haiti,” she said.

The preliminary report she read estimated the strength of the quake to be 7.2.

“I was very upset, because I knew the destruction was going to be severe,” she said. “It’s one of those times that you don’t really want to be right.”

Though the news of it was saddening, she said the implications for her research were immediately recognizable.

“It was good to know that the research methodology was correct and that the science worked,” she said.

“I was very upset, because I knew the destruction was going to be severe. It’s one of those times that you don’t really want to be right.”

Pamela Jansma,
College of Science Dean

Jansma is scheduled to speak on Feb. 11 at UTA about her research. Her talk will focus on Haiti, how they knew a magnitude 7.0 was likely and what they know now.

The methods used included data collected from 1994 to 2005 at GPS sites throughout the Caribbean region where GPS receivers are installed.

Researchers also look through historical documents for descriptions of the ground shaking and how much destruction was caused.

Accounts from different locations help scientists locate the epicenter of a past seismic event. This is one way they were able to estimate the location of the impending quake.

These accounts are often sketchy, according to Jansma, but help determine the severity of quakes in the past, and also to triangulate the approximate location of the epicenter.

Based on these accounts, the last major quake in Haiti was in 1751 and was estimated to be 7.5.

The paper states that a period of 570-710 years would be needed to accumulate the tension necessary for a similar event, but that a quake of 7.2 magnitude or less was possible at that time.

Much of the post-quake devastation in Haiti is due to economic and cultural factors, said geology department chair John Wickham.

“The problem in Haiti, and in many undeveloped countries, is that people are living at a subsitence level and cannot afford to protect themselves from natural disasters,” he said. “No one who is familiar with earthquakes in poor countries is surprised at the Haitian devastation.”